Context

At the end of 2025, around 9.1 million people were living in Switzerland. Since the introduction of the free movement of persons in 2002, the population has grown by around 1.7 million. This is mainly due to immigration. The number of people immigrating depends primarily on the labour market. When the economy is thriving, companies cannot find enough workers in Switzerland. Companies, as well as public institutions such as hospitals and care homes, then often recruit the missing skilled workers from within the EU.

The initiative

The initiative «No to a 10-million-strong Switzerland! (Sustainability Initiative)» calls for a cap on the permanent resident population: Switzerland’s population would have to remain below 10 million people before 2050. If the permanent resident population were to exceed 9.5 million people before 2050, the Federal Council and Parliament would have to take measures, particularly in the areas of asylum and family reunification. The Federal Council would also have to invoke or negotiate exemptions and safeguard clauses in international agreements that contribute to population growth. If the 10-million threshold were exceeded, Switzerland would have to terminate these agreements, including – after two years – the agreement with the EU on the free movement of persons. This would also render the other agreements under Bilateral Agreements I null and void. Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s Schengen and Dublin Agreements would also be called into question, and with it the close cooperation in the areas of security and asylum.

Contents of the initiative

Context

Population trends

At the end of 2025, just over 9.1 million people were permanently resident in Switzerland. Since the introduction of the free movement of persons in 2002, the population has grown by around 1.7 million. 80 per cent of this growth is attributable to immigration, particularly from EU/EFTA countries. The economy, society and the social welfare system all benefit from immigration. However, rapid population growth also presents challenges.

Economy and society

The number of people immigrating to Switzerland depends primarily on the labour market. When the economy is strong, companies cannot find enough workers in Switzerland. They therefore recruit staff from abroad. Thanks to the free movement of persons, companies in both the private and public sectors – such as hospitals and care homes – can recruit foreign workers from the EU/EFTA area quickly and without red tape. This opportunity is also significant for the economy. Switzerland’s economic output per capita has increased by 24 per cent since 2002. The free movement of persons has contributed to this.

Social security

Overall, foreign workers contribute more to the financing of social security schemes than they claim in benefits. Whilst they do receive more unemployment insurance (ALV) benefits than they pay in contributions, they make significantly higher contributions to the Old Age and Survivors’ Insurance (AHV), Disability Insurance (IV) and Income Compensation Scheme (EO) than they receive from them.

Demand for foreign workers

Swiss companies and public institutions such as hospitals and care homes will continue to rely on foreign workers to fill vacancies. The number of people retiring is already greater than the number of those entering the labour market. In addition, an increasing number of elderly people require care.

Challenges posed by population growth

Population growth is increasing the demand for housing. The Federal Council is addressing this by promoting the construction of affordable housing. Furthermore, it is tackling challenges relating to spatial planning, transport, energy and the environment through a wide range of measures. These include, for example, the expansion of the road and rail networks and environmental protection.

Demands of the initiative

A maximum of 10 million people by 2050

The «No to a 10-million-strong Switzerland! (Sustainability Initiative)» calls for a cap on the permanent resident population: it must not exceed 10 million people before 2050. The initiators wish to limit immigration in order to protect the environment and ensure the long-term preservation of natural resources, whilst maintaining the capacity of infrastructure, healthcare and social security systems. Following the initiative’s adoption, the Confederation and the cantons must take measures, particularly if certain thresholds are exceeded.

Measures at 9.5 million people

If Switzerland’s permanent resident population exceeds the 9.5-million threshold before 2050, the initiative provides for the following:

• The Federal Council and Parliament must take action, particularly in the areas of asylum and family reunification. The initiative does not specify what further measures must be taken.
• Persons granted provisional admission may no longer be granted a residence or settlement permit, nor any other right of residence, and may not become naturalised.
• The Federal Council must invoke or negotiate exemption or safeguard clauses in international agreements that contribute to population growth, or renegotiate such agreements. This could, for example, affect the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU, the European Convention on Human Rights, the Geneva Convention on Refugees or the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

According to federal projections, the threshold of 9.5 million people is likely to be exceeded in 2031.

Measures when the population reaches 10 million

If Switzerland’s permanent resident population exceeds the 10-million mark, the initiative provides for the following:

• The Federal Council and Parliament must take all available measures to ensure that the permanent resident population falls back below the 10-million mark.
• International agreements that contribute to population growth must be terminated at the earliest possible date.

From 2050 onwards, the Federal Council may increase the 10-million limit by any excess birth rate.

Termination of the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons

If, two years after the 10-million threshold has been exceeded for the first time, the permanent resident population still exceeds this figure, the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons with the EU must be terminated. Switzerland could refrain from termination if, by that time, exception or safeguard clauses have been applied or invoked to ensure compliance with this 10-million threshold.

Consequences of the initiative

Restrictions on the labour market

If Switzerland were to cap its population at 10 million, it would be difficult for companies in both the private and public sectors to continue recruiting the necessary workforce. The Swiss economy and public institutions such as hospitals and care homes would face labour shortages. Terminating the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons would make it more difficult to recruit workers from the EU/EFTA area. As a result of the termination, it would also become more difficult for Swiss nationals to work in the EU/EFTA area.

Termination of the bilateral agreements

The Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons is linked to the other agreements under Bilateral Agreements I. If the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons is terminated, these agreements will automatically cease to apply. They cover the removal of trade barriers, land and air transport, agriculture and public procurement. For businesses and farmers alike, trade with the EU would become more expensive and complicated. Studies show that the abolition of the First Round of Bilateral Agreements would cost the Swiss economy billions in lost revenue and leave the population with less disposable income.

Abolition of Schengen/Dublin

Terminating the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons would also jeopardise Switzerland’s participation in the EU’s Schengen and Dublin Agreements. Their abolition would have far-reaching consequences for the asylum sector and for Switzerland’s internal security:

• Unlike at present, Switzerland would have to conduct asylum procedures for asylum seekers who have already applied for asylum in the EU. Switzerland would no longer be able to transfer these asylum seekers to other European countries. Furthermore, asylum seekers who have been refused entry in an EU country could submit a second application in Switzerland. Switzerland would therefore likely have to conduct more asylum procedures.
• The Swiss police and border control authorities would no longer have access to the European security and criminal intelligence databases, which are currently key tools for internal security.

In the areas of asylum, internal security and border control, this would entail greater administrative burdens and additional costs amounting to several hundred million Swiss francs per year.

Weakening of human rights

If Switzerland were to have to renegotiate or terminate agreements on the protection of human rights, this could lead to a break with its humanitarian tradition and to Switzerland’s isolation in foreign policy. Switzerland’s reputation in the world could be damaged and its credibility called into question.

Results

The initiative was rejected.

Voter turnout: 58.86 %
Yes votes: 45.21 %