Development of the total population

The Federal Statistical Office regularly produces “scenarios for population development in Switzerland.” These serve as a basis for decision-making and planning in politics, business, and society. The population scenarios for 2025–2055 are the ninth series of calculated population scenarios produced by the FSO. Three new basic scenarios have been calculated. The reference scenario is scenario A-00-2025, which is based on a continuation of recent trends. It combines assumptions that point to moderate population growth. The “high” scenario (B-00-2025) is based on a combination of assumptions that favor population growth, while the “low” scenario (C-00-2025) combines assumptions that are less favorable to population growth. The assumptions underlying the scenario calculations can be found in the explanatory report “Scenarios for population development in Switzerland and the cantons” published by the FSO (german and french report only).

The permanent resident population includes all Swiss citizens with their main place of residence in Switzerland, foreign nationals with a residence or settlement permit, with a short-term residence permit for a cumulative stay of at least twelve months, and persons in the asylum process with a total stay of at least twelve months. This definition of the target population ensures consistency with the population and household statistics (STATPOP) and complies with international recommendations.

The most important findings in brief

The key findings of this new series of scenarios can be summarized as follows:

• The population of Switzerland is likely to increase over the next 30 years, mainly as a result of migration.
• The population is expected to continue aging, with the most significant increase occurring between 2025 and 2035.
• The population of Switzerland is likely to become increasingly concentrated in the cantons surrounding the Zurich and Geneva conurbations.

The reference scenario shows the following:

• The permanent resident population of Switzerland is expected to reach 9.1 million in 2025. It is likely to grow to just under 9.8 million by 2035 and exceed 10 million in 2041. By 2055, it is expected to reach around 10.5 million.
• The population aged 65 and over is expected to increase from 1.8 million in 2025 to 2.2 million in 2035 and to just under 2.7 million in 2055. Their share of the total population is expected to rise from 19.9% in 2025 to 25.5% in 2055.
• The population of the cantons of Lucerne, St. Gallen, Aargau, Thurgau, Geneva, and Vaud is expected to grow by more than 20% between 2025 and 2055, while population growth across Switzerland as a whole is likely to be 15% over the same period.

Background information on scenario calculation

The scenario calculations are based on assumptions from the following four main factor domains:

• Birth rate
• Mortality
• Migration
• Aquisition of Swiss citizenship

All hypotheses, as well as their positive, neutral, or negative influences on the four main factors of population development, are summarized on page 14 (T6) of the report “Scenarios for Population Development in Switzerland and the Cantons 2025–2055” (FSO).

Birth rate

In general, the number of births per woman (TFR = total fertility rate) is declining in most European countries. In Switzerland, it stood at 1.38 in 2001. It rose steadily in the following years, reaching 1.52 in 2010. From then until 2018, the TFR fluctuated between 1.52 and 1.55, before falling rapidly from 1.48 in 2019 to 1.33 in 2023; only in 2021 did it rise temporarily to 1.52 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The average age of mothers at birth rose steadily during this period from 30.0 to 32.4 years. The reference scenario assumes a stable TFR, the high scenario a slightly rising TFR and the low scenario a slightly falling TFR. There are significant differences between Swiss mothers (2023 TFR of 1.23) and foreign mothers (2023 TFR of 1.58).

Mortality

Between 2001 and 2011, the number of deaths in Switzerland fluctuated between 60,000 and 63,000. From 2012 to 2019, it rose irregularly and generally ranged between 64,000 and 68,000. In 2020, the number of deaths rose to 76,000 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It then fluctuated between 71,000 and 74,000, rising to just under 72,000 by 2023. Between 2001 and 2019, life expectancy at birth rose from 77.4 to 81.9 years for men and from 83.1 to 85.6 years for women. In 2020, life expectancy fell to 81.0 years for men and 85.1 years for women due to pandemic-related deaths. It then stagnated at 81.6 for men and fluctuated between 85.7 and 85.4 for women before rising again. In 2023, life expectancy was 82.2 for men and 85.8 for women.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy in Switzerland fell sharply in 2020. Even before that, flu epidemics and heat waves had caused the trend to be less steady than in the past. Similar to the birth rate, the trend in mortality over the next few years is very uncertain. Life expectancy could either rise rapidly or remain at current levels in the coming years. Based on the information available today, there are no indications as to which of these two scenarios will occur. There is considerable uncertainty regarding future mortality rates. For the first projection years, therefore, a wide range of life expectancies are taken into account in order to cover the entire spectrum of plausible developments for the coming years.

Migration

Over the past five years, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have had a major impact on migration trends in Switzerland. Apart from these exceptional events, however, the past two decades have seen a general trend toward high levels of immigration and emigration, resulting in high migration volumes. While immigration fluctuated at a high level, emigration showed a more stable upward trend. This was due, on the one hand, to the economic situation in Europe and, on the other hand, to the emigration of many workers who had immigrated to Switzerland at the end of the 20th century and are now reaching retirement age. The developments described above are likely to continue.

All hypotheses assume that Switzerland will remain attractive thanks to its favorable economic situation, central location in Europe, high standard of living, good quality of life, and favorable taxes. Companies recruit missing workers mainly from within the EEA. Due to the baby boomer generation reaching retirement age, numerous jobs will become vacant, some of which will be filled by people recruited from abroad. Most of these people have a high level of education and are very mobile. As a result, most of them will only stay in Switzerland for a few years. In other European countries, too, the baby boomers will reach retirement age between 2030 and 2040, accelerating demographic aging. This will lead to increased competition between Switzerland and other European countries for skilled workers. Over time, it will become more difficult for Switzerland to recruit workers from the EEA. Due to legal hurdles, recruiting people from third countries is more complicated than recruiting people from the Schengen area. For these reasons, net migration is likely to decline after 2030. Based on the general assumption that the economic situation in Switzerland will remain favorable, net migration will nevertheless be positive for all three scenarios throughout the entire period under review.

Aquisition of Swiss citizenship

From 1992 to 2006, the annual number of citizenships granted in Switzerland rose steadily from 11,000 to 47,000. It then fluctuated between just under 33,000 and 45,000. The highest number of naturalizations was reached in 2017, one year before the new Citizenship Act (BüG) came into force, which tightened some of the requirements for naturalization. In 2023, 41,000 people acquired Swiss citizenship.

The number of acquisitions of Swiss citizenship depends mainly on three factors: the number of people eligible, their willingness to apply for citizenship, and the willingness of the authorities to grant it to them. According to estimates, more than two million foreign nationals currently live in Switzerland long enough to apply for naturalization. In all three basic scenarios, the permanent foreign resident population in Switzerland increases as a result of migration. Consequently, there are more and more people in Switzerland who could apply for Swiss citizenship. In all three scenarios, the number of citizenships granted stabilizes at a fairly high level.

According to the reference hypothesis, the strict conditions for acquiring Swiss citizenship deter many people from applying. In addition, people from EEA countries have less interest in obtaining a Swiss passport due to bilateral agreements. The desire to obtain Swiss citizenship is strongest among people who do not come from the EEA; their applications keep the number of citizenships granted at a relatively high level.